Albany, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

398
FXUS61 KALY 020600
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry and cool conditions to the area
through tonight, with breezy winds becoming light and variable.
More clouds and precipitation arrive Wednesday and Wednesday
night, with a wintry mix including freezing rain expected at
higher elevations.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key Messages:

- Dry and cold tonight with high pressure to the north

Updates:

As of 1 AM EDT, the forecast remains in good shape with minor
updates to adjust temperatures and cloud cover to match latest
obs. Elsewhere, all remains unchanged with additional details in
the previous discussion below.

Discussion:

18z surface analysis showed expansive high pressure centered
just north of the Great Lakes, with ridging extending southward
into the Ohio River Valley. Skies were clear to partly cloud
across the region with 300 PM temperatures in the mid 40s to
near 50.

High pressure will remain the rule through tonight as it slowly
drifts east across Ontario and Quebec. Expect continued clear to
partly cloudy skies initially before mid to high clouds increase
around midnight as moisture increases aloft. Despite those
clouds, it will get fairly chilly with overnight lows dropping
into the teens (terrain) to upper 20s (valleys) with light &
variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather through the short term with rain, freezing rain,
  sleet and snow all expected

- Temperatures warm well above normal Thursday

Discussion:

Wednesday daytime will be dry with continued increasing clouds
and high pressure departing to the east. The clouds are tied to
a warm front that will be approaching the region from the
southwest, which looks to arrive late Wednesday night and
Thursday morning. Increasing WAA, moisture and isentropic lift
will lead to development of stratiform precip along and just
north of the front, which will be moving into the region from
west to east beginning late Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Outside of the higher elevations, precipitation will begin as a
rain/sleet mix with strong winds aloft ushering in temperatures
above freezing above 800 hPa, with colder temperatures below
and surface temperatures near to just above freezing. Higher
elevations of the southern ADKs and southern Greens ahead of the
warm front will see more of a freezing rain/sleet mix with
surface temperatures closer to or just below freezing. Latest
guidance remains in agreement in favoring ice amounts of only a
few hundredths up to a tenth of an inch (40-70%), and is
favored to fall Wednesday evening through early Thursday
morning before changing to all rain. While amounts are light,
it will be enough to create a brief period of slippery
conditions, so will need to continue to monitor the need for a
Winter Weather Advisory. Total QPF will range from around a
quarter to as much as an inch, with the highest amounts across
the southern ADKs.

Steady rain will slowly come to an end midday Thursday with the warm
front lifting north into the ADKs and Greens. The warm sector should
follow and build north into much of eastern NY and western New
England, allowing temperatures to warm well above normal for the
afternoon. How warm we get will depend on cloud cover, but latest
ensemble and deterministic models support highs well into the 60s
areawide. Highs around 70 into the lower 70s will be possible for
locations that manage to see sunshine.

The mild air mass will quickly get shunted out of the area Thursday
evening with the approach of a cold front from the northwest.
Additional isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible as a
result of weak lift with the front, but more numerous activity will
be well north of the region where stronger shortwave forcing will be
located. As the front progresses across the region, it will slowly
stall across the Mid Hudson Valley late Thursday night, where
additional rain showers will be possible through late Thursday
night. Despite the frontal passage, lows will Thursday night will
only drop into the mid 30s (terrain) to upper 40s (valleys) as light
winds keep CAA low.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- More rain for the weekend with another push of warmer air
  north and subsequent strong cold front

- Temperatures dropping well below normal by the middle of next
  week

Discussion:

A dry start to the long term is expected with weak surface high
pressure and ridging aloft building across the region. With 925-850
hPa temps warming back into the single digits to near 10 C and
sufficient vertical mixing, there is high confidence of PM highs
warming back into the 50s/60s for much of the area outside of higher
elevations. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s/40s with
increasing clouds.

Another warm front is progged to surge back north into region
Saturday through Sunday, with temperatures favoring rain for much of
the region through the event duration (low potential for a rain/snow
mix at higher elevations of the ADKs and southern Greens).
Uncertainty on exact rain amounts at this time, but there is
potential for amounts greater than half an inch (40-60%) given a
favorable connection to Gulf moisture and PWATs climbing well above
1.00" for much of the region. Rain chances will continue as a cold
front progresses through the region Sunday, and should quickly end
Monday morning for most. CAA, northwest flow behind the front and
the arrival of additional lift with a trough will favor upslope and
lake enhanced rain/snow showers through early next week, though
chances are low (10-30%) at this time.

The main story will be temperatures as highs in the 50s/60s Saturday
and Sunday will fall into 30s/40s Tuesday, with potential for
highs only in the 20s in higher elevations of the ADKs,
Catskills and southern Greens. Some deterministic models such as
the ECMWF have highs cooler highs, so will need to monitor this
over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z Thursday...VFR conditions will prevail through much of
the period with dry conditions and mainly BKN high level cirrus
clouds. Conditions will then gradually lower to MVFR especially at
KGFL/KPSF after 00z Thu, as a warm front approaches. Precip expected
to be mainly rain/sleet through 06z Thu at KGFL/KPSF. Precip should
be more scattered in coverage at KALB/KPOU, so will mention PROB30
for some intermittent -RA and MVFR cigs through 06z Thu. Winds will
initially be northerly around 4-8 kt, becoming southeast and
increasing to 7-12 kt by late this morning. Occasional gusts around
15-20 kt will also develop during the afternoon to evening
hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA...SN...SLEET.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A low risk of fire spread will remain in place across the
Leatherstocking Fire Zone, including parts of the Mohawk Valley
into Schoharie County through this evening, and again for a
brief period Wednesday afternoon. This is thanks to a dry air
mass in place, with dewpoints in the teens to low 20s (RHs
ranging from around 25-35%) and gusty winds. The risk will
subside late Wednesday with increasing clouds and moisture
building into the region ahead of a warm front. After
collaboration with neighboring offices and state officials,
agreed that an SPS for the Leatherstocking Fire Zone is not
needed at this time as confidence in risk of fire spread is
low.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
NEAR TERM...Gant/Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...Speck